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Our goal is to present the polling data and the associated projections of the winner in the 2020 Presidential Election in an easily navigated understandable format free of as much bias as is possible these days.
The 2016 Election for President was a razor thin win for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. Assuming Trump survives the Impeachment Ambush, the 2020 race will come down to a very simple question:
Can Donald Trump hold or improve his 2016 electoral vote margins? They were thin in many cases. And further: Can we predict the winner in advance. With rare exception we didn’t in 2016. This time it will be different.
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In 2016 there were 14 Swing States. That includes single Districts in Maine and Nebraska each with 1 electoral vote. Those and the other 12 states decided the election.
And Donald Trump won those 14 states. In those states he finished ahead in both the electoral and popular vote but by extremely small margins.
For 2018 we will start with the main 12 Swing States from 2016 as our baseline.
The Swing States in 2020 are very likely to be the same as they were in 2016. That could change but it is the logical starting point for a 2020 prediction.
In 2016 Trump and Hillary split the non-Swing State vote 188 to 188. That also in unlikely to change without a blowout one way or the other.
So we will track and post Swing State polls exclusively. If 2016 taught us anything it is that you cannot predict the winner based on national polls.